Marka laga hadlayo duulaankii Maraykanku hogaaminayay ee Afgaanistaan ​​​​2001 iyo Ciraaq 2003 iyo wakhtiga uu qaatay, waxaa laga cabsi qabaa in dagaalka Madaxweyne Vladimir Putin ee Ukraine uu kuwaas la mid noqdo.

Ed Arnold, oo ah khabiir ku takhasusay amniga Yurub kana tirsan machadka Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), ayaa ku tilmaamay weeraradii ugu horeeyay ee Ruushka mid “aad u liita” ama “ka gaabis ah sidii la filayay”.

Ruushku ayaan u isticmaalin madaafiicda iyo duqeymaha cirka sidii laga filayay. Laakiin Mr Arnold wuxuu ku daray: “Qodobka muhiimka ah ayaa ah inay wajahayaan iska caabin aad u adag, taas oo aan u malaynayo inaysan filaynin.”

Waxa uu sidoo kale aaminsan yahay Mr Arnold in taliyaha milatariga Ruushka uu si dhakhso ah ula qabsan doono dib u dhac kasta oo ku yimaada. Jeneraal Sir Richard Barrons, oo hore u ahaan jiray taliye sare oo ka tirsan militariga Ingiriiska, ayaa sheegay in ay wali u muuqato in Ruushku “ay si degdeg ah u wax uga badeli doonaan ujeeddooyinkooda ciidan”.

Gen Barrons, waxa uu sheegay in ay iska caddahay ujeedooyinka bilowga ah ee duulaanka Ruushka ee ku salaysnaa “in la jebiyo millatariga Ukraine, meeshana laga saaro dawladda dhexe, laguna daro qayb ka mid ah Ukraine dalka Ruushka”.

Ciidamada Ruushka ayaa samaystay buundo dhanka dhulka ah oo soo gasha gudaha Ukraine kana soo baxda Crimea, oo ay duulaan ku qaadeen sanadkii 2014-kii.

Ed Arnold ayaa tan ku tilmaamay “ujeedo toosan”. Balse waxay isku dayi karaan inay hareereeyaan ciidamada Ukraine ee difaacaya bariga.

Qaar ka mid ah ciidamada ugu khibradda badan dalka Ukraine ayaa la dagaalamaya kooxaha gooni u goosadka ah ee uu Ruushka taageero 8-dii sano ee la soo dhaafay.

Ilaa hadda, waxay u muuqdaan inay si geesinimo leh ula dagaallameen kooxaha goon u goosadka ee uu Ruushku taageero, si ay uga soo gudbaan dhulalka la haysto ee Donetsk iyo Luhansk. Balse aad bay u adkaan doontaa haddii ay ciidamada Ruushka ka hortagaan.

Xaqiiqdu waxay tahay in qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah ciidamada qalabka sida ee Ukraine ay mar horeba ku xirmeen dagaalka oo ay ku adkaan doonto in dib loo soo celiyo.

Ruushka ayaa sidoo kale horumar weyn ka sameeyay magaalada Kyiv. Qabsashada caasimadda waa ujeeddada kale ee ugu weyn ee uu Ruushka wato.

Madaxweyne Putin waxa uu doonayaa in uu beddelo awoodda madaxweyne Zelensky ee sida dimuqraadiga ah loo soo doortay uuna ku beddelo nidaam u gaar ah oo u hoggaansan.

Su’aashu hadda waxay tahay, sidee u fududaan doontaa arrintaas? Ciidamada Ruushka ayaa u muuqda kuwo isku dayaya inay magaalada hareereeyaan. Laakiin waxay u badan tahay inay la kulmaan iska caabin adag.

Haddii ay qabsadaan Kiev iyo dalka intiisa kale, markaas Mr Arnold wuxuu soo jeedinayaa inay jiri karto furad yar oo loo sii riixi karo ciidamada Ruushka dhanka galbeedka.

Bale madaxweyne Putin ayaa rajaynayo in ka dib markii ay ciidamadiisu qabsadeen caasimadda oo ay ka adkaadeen ciidamada Ukraine, aysan jiri doonin wax iska caabin ah oo kaga timaada ciidamada Ukraine.

Gen Barrons waxa uu aaminsan yahay in inkasta oo Ruushku uu haysto xoogag uu kaga adkaan karo ciidamada Ukraine, waxaa taasi bedeli kara “kacdoon aad u adag oo kaga yimaada reer Ukraine.

Madaxweyne Putin waxa uu marar badan ku eedeeyay Ukraine in ay maamulkeeda la wareegeen kooxo xagjir ah, tan iyo wixii ka dmabeeyay markii 2014-kii xilka laga tuuray madaxweynihii Ruushka taageeri jiray, Viktor Yanukovych. Mudaharaadyo bilo socday ayaa xafiiska looga eryay Mr Yanukovych.

Ruushku waxa uu arrintaas uga aar goostay la wareegistii gobolka Crimea ee koonfurta Ukraine iyo in uu dhanka bariga ka kiciyay kooxo fallaago ah, waxa uuna taageero siiyay kooxo gooni u goosad doon ah oo ciidamada Ukraine kula jiray dagaal ay ku dhinteen ilaa 14,000 oo ruux.

Dabayaaqadii 2021-kii, Ruushku waxa uu billaabay in uu tiro badan oo ciidamo ah geeyo meel u dhow xadka Ukraine, isagoo ku celcelinayay beeninta inuu weerar qaadi rabo.

Kaddibna Mr Putin waxa uu baabi’iyay heshiis nabadeed oo la kala saxiixday 2015-kii, waxa uuna dowlado xor ah u aqoonsaday gobollo ay fallaago maamulayeen.

Ruushku waxa uu muddo dheer ka soo horjeeday in Ukraine ay ku biirto Midowga Yurub iyo in ay xubin ka noqoto isbahaysiga difaaca reer Galbeedka ee Nato.